The war in Ukraine has for obvious reasons had an effect on the Polish market like on markets all over the world but in some areas it is a bit different in Poland than in most countries.
Also very high inflation in Poland
Poland has, like many countries, experienced a high inflation close to 18% especially high on groceries (and some Polish suppliers therefore increased their prices a lot) but it is now while I write this gone down a bit.
One of the ways to fight against inflation is to increase the interest rates and the National Bank of Poland has done that many times last year. As a result it has become extremely expensive to take a loan including a mortgage in Poland.
Big changes in the Polish market – especially in real estate
The real estate market has not “just” been impacted by the war via inflation but also due to the fact that many Ukrainian have fled to Poland and are now living here.
Therefore suddenly there was a lack of apartments in the bigger cities in Poland and the rent prices went through the roof as a result of that. Fx. a studio apartment in Warsaw went from costing 1800 PLN per month to cost 2900 PLN in under a year! Same effect on bigger apartments.
It has cooled down a bit but it is still very high compared with over a year ago and it is besides the Polish capital worst in the tri-city area. It is also in those cities where the people with the highest incomes live in Poland.
Tourism sector in Poland was hit hard
In the beginning of the war it was especially the tourist sector that was hit the hardest. Many foreigners were afraid of visiting Poland because of the war in Poland’s neighbouring country. Despite the fact that Poland was and is a member of NATO.
It seems to have changed a lot maybe because people firstly have acknowledged that Poland is a NATO country and secondly that so many Ukrainians would not seek refuge in Poland if it was not safe to stay here.
Many Ukrainians got jobs in Poland
The unemployment rate has for years been low in Poland and it has also helped the Ukrainian who fled to Poland. Because many of them are now in jobs all over Poland but of course mainly in the bigger cities.
So it has also had an effect on the job market in Poland but it is also important to remember that before the war there were already 2 mio. Ukrainians approximately lived in Poland before the war and in general there are many expats from other countries living in Poland like myself.
Outsourcing to the Polish market
The boom of expats came 2015-2018 mainly because many companies were outsourcing to Poland especially in the IT sector and customer service sector. A development that has slowed down a bit but is still going on. Some also because of the war in Ukraine and therefore they have entered the Polish market.
If you need help with that you can book one of my webinars and workshops or hire me for a business consulting session regarding that fx. Feel free to contact me.